So we just got an intra-meeting 75 basis point cut. I guess the Fed's job is to prop up the stock market now. I'm not a huge economics expert, nor do I really care one way or the other what the Fed does with rates at the moment. However, it looks pretty obvious that the move was done due to declines in global stock markets and a desire to prevent such declines in the US.
Add Indian tourist sites to the list of places that won't accept dollars anymore. According to a recent ruling from the Indian Government, visitors will no longer be allowed to pay admission fees to places like the Taj Mahal in US Dollars. They must use Rupees instead. According to the BBC, "The ruling is aimed at safeguarding tourism revenues following the recent falls in the dollar."
The Taj Mahal joins the likes of model Gisele Bundchen and rapper Jay-Z as the latest object of public interest to snub the dollar.
Just tossing that out there.
By the way, im watching Bloomberg TV- Asian markets are open on Sunday nights in NYC. Did you know that the Pakistani government's 10-year bond is yielding 10.3% right now? I'm not sure how you could buy one of those and given the fact that the country is currently under emergency rule , I'm not sure you would want to buy one. How much do you trust a 10-year promise that Pakistan will pay you back? Actually, taking that a step further... why would you ever want to support such a government by loaning money to it?
If you're an American and you've read the newspaper, or Web sites, or heard people talking lately, chances are you're aware of the major "doom and gloom" economic themes that have surfaced over the past couple of years, and in many cases, intensified over the past few months.
I would put them into three broad categories, which are all interrelated. The first is the housing market collapse, the second is turmoil in the credit markets affecting the international financial markets, and the third is the decline of the dollar (which many say is caused by the budget deficit).
As I was driving home from Dunkin Donuts on a cool Sunday morning in New York City, I passed a bank and recalled a story I'd read the previous Friday describing an old fashioned "run on the bank" that happened in England last week. I thought to myself "What if all of these dire predictions come true?"
I don't think everything is going to collapse like everyone says it will. The US economy has survived a huge number of similar scares in the past and over time our standard of living has increased, stocks have gone up, and people who have worked hard and had some luck have been able to become successful. I consider myself one of these people. For as much as I feel like I'm priced out of the home buying market, I am fortunate enough to have worked my way through college and grad school and into a relatively high paying job as compared to average salaries thorughout the country as a whole.
However, as a thought exercise, I wondered, if someone knew now that all of these things were going to come to fruition, what could they do in advance of the coming crash?
Problem: The declining value of the US dollar.
Fallout: USD paper money is nearly worthless. As confidence in the dollar declines, it will take more dollars to buy the same amount of goods and stores will raise prices to the extent that it would take a barrel full of them to buy a loaf of bread. The government will print up even more dollars and compound the problem. Your bank accounts and 401(k)s, which are denominated in dollars, are worth nothing. Banks fail and depositors lose their life savings.
What you can do now: Put half of your savings in non-USD denominated accounts and buy gold and other assets that will not depreciate along with the dollar. One place to open up an account denominated in a foreign currency is Everbank. Research the economies of different countries, but if I was going to put money into 3 currencies right now, I would probably pick the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and Japanese yen, with other candidates being the Euro and the New Zealand dollar. Put another portion of your savings into gold. I did an entire post about buying gold that you might want to take a look at.
This Motley Fool article has another suggestion- buying stock in companies whose earnings are denominated in foreign currencies in order to squeeze more gains out of the weakening dollar.
Problem: The rising price of oil.
Fallout: It becomes prohibitively expensive to use oil. You won't be able to heat your house in the winter. You won't be able to afford to drive a car.
What you can do now: Investigate moving to a more temperate climate, such as the southern part of the country, where you won't need heating oil. Start riding your bike to work to strengthen your leg muscles and increase your aerobic capacity. Buy shares in an oil company, oil futures or oil HLDRS, so that when the price of the commodity increases, the value of your holdings also increases. Explore the use of solar power (which looks expensive now, but won't when oil doubles or triples). Maybe give one of these solar showers a shot.
Problem: Falling Housing Prices
Fallout: The value of your home drops. The value of your investment property drops. You don't want to live there anymore, and nobody wants to buy it from you. You can't sell it for enough money to pay off your mortgage.
What you can do now: First of all, let me just say that if you bought a house you couldn't afford, you're dumb. If you're fortunate enough to be able to keep up the payments and just live there, then don't worry about the value of your house declining. If you're not selling or buying something, you don't care about what its value is, you care about the cost of ownership. So, ignore the news about home prices if you like living there and can make your payments.
If you have to sell for some reason, I can't really think of anything special beyond the basic real estate ideas to increase your home's curb appeal and stage it etc...
The other thing you can do now is to carefully evaluate real estate prices and mortgage options BEFORE you buy a house. Don't pay the ridiculous prices. Don't get an adjustable-rate mortgage that can reset to a rate that will be unaffordable for you. Put simply: don't buy something you can't afford.
Those are just some brief thoughts I had. Of course you can also just go the direct route of shorting the dollar, buying oil and gold, buying credit default swaps (if you have enough money- these products are more for institutional investors), and shorting the stocks of home builders and mortgage lenders. I'm sure there are a ton of other options. If you think of any good ones, or disagree with the above feel add comments on this post.
Have you noticed how gold prices have been moving this month? The chart on the left comes from kitco.com, my favorite web source for gold pricing. Gold responds to weakness in the dollar, and man has the dollar been getting weaker lately. (Aside: when people say the dollar is "getting weaker," they are talking about foreign exchange rates. A weaker dollar means it takes more dollars to buy one unit of another currency, such as the Canadian dollar or the Euro). This weakness sent the price of gold up from $670 an ounce on Sept 3 to about $740 an ounce today.
. As you can see, as of today, the US Dollar and the Canadian dollar are basically at parity, meaning one US Dollar is worth as much as one Canadian dollar.I guess he has been writing these for a while, but I've only recently started reading Bill Gross's monthly investment outlook at pimco.com.
In this month's post, Bill spoke about a few issues near and dear to my heart, the first one being the gap between rich and poor, which I have written about before. He rails against this gap, saying that he's firmly in Warren Buffett's camp and thinks it's a travesty for the richest people in America to be paying 15% tax rates on average, while the middle class (their secretaries and assistants) end up paying almost 30%. He says this is one of the prime reasons why there is such a huge gap between the rich and the poor, where 5% of the national income goes to .01% of the families in the US. You read that right, "point zero-one" or "one basis point" take in 5% of the national income.
That whole discussion was spurred by a recent issue that has gotten a lot of attention in the financial press. Basically, the rich managers of private equity funds, whose annual income is measured in hundred millions or billions, have their income treated as capital gains, so it gets taxed at the much lower 15% rate instead of the 35% rate us mortals pay. This New York Times article does a good job of summing up the issue.
I agree with Buffett and Gross. If you made $100 million last year, you should be paying $35 million in taxes, not $15 million. This leaves you with $65 million for yourself. Meanwhile, your secretary (lets assume she's an executive secretary) made $100 thousand last year, and paid her full $35 thousand share. This left her with $65 thousand for herself. Why should she be paying a higher rate than you? If anything, she should be the one paying the lower rate. In fact, it could potentially change her life to have $15k extra in her pocket every year. What's an extra $15 million to someone who already has a billion in the bank?
Gross also spoke about the markets some more, in particular, talking about increasing credit spreads. He basically repeated the theme that easy money is drying up for the LBO funds and PE folks who have been using it for buyouts. In particular, he pointed to a financing that's in the works right now that may not be going so well...
"Those that assert that this is merely an isolated subprime crisis should observe very closely the price and terms that lenders are willing to accept with Chrysler finance this week. That more than anything else may wake them, shake them, and tell them that their world has suddenly changed."
Well according to some press coverage I've been reading, it turns out the lenders haven't been able to accept ANY terms to lend money to Chrysler finance, and the banks and the companies involved are going to fund the buyout themselves.
For those of you who don't follow the credit markets very closely, I'll try to sum up what has been going on (in my opinion). Over the past few years, buyout funds have been able to borrow large sums of money at very low rates and use that money to acquire companies. The lower the price they paid on the borrowed funds, the more money they could make off of these companies they bought. Think of it this way: if you can borrow a million dollars at 3%, you are paying $30,000 a year in interest to use that million dollars. If you use the million to buy a business that returns you 12%, the business will be throwing you $120,000 a year. Subtract out your interest payments, and you're getting $90,000 a year in profit for yourself. Not bad! You'll easily be able to make your interest payments, and in fact you'll probably go out looking for more of these great deals. That's exactly what buyout funds have been trying to do, except they have been buying businesses for much more than $1 million.
The credit markets were giddy with all of these deals. Lenders were willing to charge lower and lower interest rates, somehow believing that there was not much risk involved, even with companies on the shaky end of the spectrum. Credit spreads (basically the additional amount lenders charge for people with shakier credit, just as banks charge people with lower credit scores higher mortgage interest rates because they are more risky) got very narrow. This meant that even a shaky business (one with a low credit rating) could get a loan and pay a rate not much higher than an extremely solid business (one with a high credit rating). There was a small "spread" between the interest rates they were charged. This is referred to as "tight credit spreads" or "narrow credit spreads."
What Gross is saying is that this is now changing. With subprime borrowers defaulting on their mortgages in large numbers, the market got sort of a slap in the face that said "wake up! you've been ignoring some risks here! you need to charge higher interest rates, especially for buyout firms that are using money to buy companies with low credit ratings because these loans are a lot riskier than you used to think! In addition, the credit rating agencies (Standard and Poor's and Moody's, primarily) have been asleep at the wheel too and they aren't giving low ratings to companies that deserve them!"
In the past few weeks, companies with low credit ratings have had to pay higher interest rates to borrow money than they have in the recent past. Things are getting back to normal, but as they make their way back there, there could be a whole lot of pain for the lenders.
The Federal Reserve published its latest edition of the Beige Book today. I usually like to get a copy of it from the Federal Reserve Website, print it out, and read it on my way home from work. You can take the easy route and read some of the news coverage on Reuters, Bloomberg, or MarketWatch, or you can check out a copy yourself.
The Fed's description of the book is "Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis."
I like how it's sort of an informal "ear to the ground" survey of different parts of the country. In particular, I think it's a good way to follow things like employment and housing.
I havent read today's version yet, but I just wanted to point it out as a good information source. As Peter Lynch might say, it's one of my "bedside thrillers."
